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Navigating COVID-19 with Data Analytics

2021-08-29 Last compiled: 2025-07-15

While Sydneysiders were in lockdowns, Enlightened Data embarked on a critical mission during the challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic. Harnessing the power of advanced data visualization, our team developed an intuitive, real-time tracking tool that painted a vivid picture of the virus’s spread across the city. This innovative platform not only provided citizens and health authorities with an immediate understanding of outbreak hotspots but also enabled the strategic deployment of healthcare resources and the implementation of targeted lockdown measures. Through this project, Enlightened Data demonstrated the impactful role of data visualization in managing public health crises, offering a beacon of clarity amidst the uncertainty of a global pandemic.

The strict lockdown in Sydney Metropolitan area

Starting in an Eastern suburb of Randwick, Delta quickly spread to Fairfield and sent this Local Government Areas (LGA) and adjacent areas to a strict lockdown in mid July 2021. Residents of these areas were ordered to stay strictly inside their home and can only go out for essential purposes such as going to work, education, grocery shopping, and medical purposes. Schools and playgrounds were closed to reduce the risk of Delta spreading further. In addition, families of the so-called LGA of concerns were only allowed to do exercise for up-to one-hour outside their homes and they must be wearing a facemask. This was perhaps the darkest period of Sydney lockdown.

Sydney lockdown 2021: Was it too little too late?

2021-08-29

Apparently so. But there is little point of criticizing the NSW government for what they did not know at the time (that Delta is a game-changer). With the Greater Sydney is in week #10 of lockdown, is there something that the NSW government can learn to slow Delta spread, first to buy time to vaccine us out of the current lockdown, and second to reduce the pressure on our healthcare systems. The answer is yes, based on an analysis of locally acquired cases shown in the Figure below. We suggest two pressing moves to avoid the same mistake and buy us time.

• Add Camden to the LGA of concern NOW. NSW Health has been watching Camden, but I wonder what they are waiting for.
• Change the cases tracking from 14-day to 7-day rolling total and half the trigger (50 to 25 or 30) to allow quicker responses.
• (Bonus) Closely watch Randwick, Inner West and Sydney.

In the last 7 days, Camden has more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents, twice the adopted threshold that would trigger for any area to go back into lockdown, according to the State plans to implement a staggered return for schools from 25 October 2021. The evidence, interpreted below, suggests that it may have been too late for Camden (I would bet my money for this).

1. Fairfield was under ‘the ring of steel’ on 17 July when the total local cases in the prior seven days were 179 cases per 100,000 residents. The LGA has seen cases reduced, but when restrictions were relaxed (eg no more requirement to test every 3 days for most authorised workers), cases started to increase again, and is now standing at the same level at when it was entered the strictest restrictions.
2. Canterbury-Bankstown and Liverpool, both share their borders with Fairfield, also entered the lockdown on the same date (17 July) when cases were low (18 & 20) but with fewer restrictions (authorised workers didn’t need tests every 3 days). By the time they were bearing the same restrictions in early August, cases per 100,000 residents had approximated or exceeded 100, and have increased since, rapidly!
3. Cumberland was added to the list of concern quite early when cases per 100,000 residents was only 11. But since cases exceeded 100, they increased rapidly and is now at the centre of the NSW outbreak (cases per resident increased 3 times in less than 4 weeks).
4. Burwood, Georges River, and Bayside have been resilient in keeping cases under 100 per 100,000 residents. ALL entered a stricter lockdown when cases were low (20, 23, and 36), so were Parramatta and Campbelltown LGAs (17 and 27). The last two LGAs have been successfully, to some extent, in keeping the cases below 100 for nearly 10 weeks, buying precious time for vaccination. In comparison, Strathfield entered lockdown at 45, which took less than 5 weeks to reach 100.
5. Camden is now at the breaking point.

Data speaks volume

2021-09-12

We have warned a week ago that NSW Health should pay close attention to the spread of Delta in Sydney, Randwick and Inner West LGAs. Two of these three LGAs are now seeing cases increased rapidly. Who knows what happens this week, after the last weekend warm weather when thousands flocked to beaches, many in Randwick.

How quickly Delta strain spread to regional NSW

2021-09-19

Have NSW cases peaked? Likely so, but that varies by where you were in NSW. In most of the 12 LGAs of concern, cases trended down in the last two weeks. In Central Coast and South Coast, however, cases are still increasing rapidly.

The worst is over for the Southwest areas but regional NSW is bearing the load…